Former WHO Public Health Official, pinuna ang dating Pres. PNoy para sa nakalilitong data nito sa kasong Dengue - News Spy

Former WHO Public Health Official, pinuna ang dating Pres. PNoy para sa nakalilitong data nito sa kasong Dengue

Dr. Susan Mercado post on Facebook and former Pres. Benigno S. Aquino III, photo compiled from Facebook
Ang beteranang medical practitioner na si Dr. Susan Mercado ay isang internasyunal na public health official na nagtrabaho dati sa World Health Organization (WHO) na pinuna ang dating Pres. Benigno S. Aquino III na nagpakita ng di-umano'y pekeng datos tungkol sa mga kaso ng dengue sa Pilipinas.

Ayon kay Dr. Susan Mercado, isang beterana na opisyal ng public health na nagtrabaho sa WHO sa loob ng mahigit na 15 taon ay nabalisa na si Pres. Aquino at nagbigay ng kanyang pahayag na may mga “data that borders on the absurb.”

Sinabi ng dating Pangulong Aquino na may pagtaas sa mga kaso ng dengue sa 100% sa Region 3 at 5 at 1,409.5% sa Region 8. Ipinaliwanag ng beterano na medikal na practitioner na natatakot siya sa mga numero na inilunsad ni Aquino.

Kung mayroong isang tinatayang 200,000 kaso ng dengue sa bawat taon, ito ay posible para sa kanila na dagdagan ang 14 na beses tulad ng nangyari sa Region 8, ang bilang ng mga maaaring may impeksyon ay 2.8 milyon ayon sa paliwanag ni Dr. Mercado sa pahayag ni PNoy.
Dr. Susan Mercado, photo from Radaris

Narito ang kumpletong pahayag ni Dr. Susan Mercado:

I find it very disturbing that President Aquino opened his statement yesterday with data that borders on the absurd.

He said that there was an increase in dengue cases by 100% in Region 3 and 5 and 1,409.5% in Region 8. "What is frightening here is, if there are an estimated 200,000 cases of dengue each year, and it is possible for them to increase 14 times like what happened in Region 8, the number of those who may potentially be infected is 2.8 million".

A quick search will show that the entire Western Pacific Region (including China, Fiji, Viet Nam and other countries with dengue problems) with a total population of 1.9 billion people only reported 500,000 cases in 2016. (WHO Western Pacific Region Dengue Fact Sheet)

Students of public health will quickly point out that you cannot take an increased incidence rate of dengue in a LOCALITY and multiply it by the NATIONAL number of cases.

There may have been a number of reasons for hyperactivity of the mosquitoes in Region 8, but mosquitoes can only live for 2-3 days, and they can only fly for 400 meters. So an outbreak is usually localized.

It is inconsistent for President Aquino to say that governments role is "to calm people down" while he did just the opposite. Using a speculative mathematical twist he has scared the public into thinking that we could have as many as 2.8 million cases of dengue.

Is this faulty statistic the justification for buying 3.0 billion worth of vaccines that had never been tested in a population - at phenomenal speed?

No, we cannot possibly be in any imaginable situation where we would have 2.8 million cases of dengue. No country in this region has ever had numbers close to this. Viet Nam, has always had the largest number of cases, and at its peak it was close to a million cases.

With due respect, that opening statement was alarmist, cannot be backed up by epidemiological modeling and is yet another insult to the intelligence of the public health community in this country.

Source: Dr Susan Mercado